The week ahead will get busier with key events – Rabobank

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank explained that it’s a quiet start to the week with the highlight being the Fed’s Fischer (Stanley not Richard) talking on the US economy in Stockholm (i.e., the US economic outlook while Fischer is in Stockholm, not the vibrancy of the local chamber of commerce).

Key Quotes:

“From today onwards we will also see China’s new loans and aggregate financing: the market is expecting a further surge in total credit in July of CNY1,500bn (more than double last July’s total and equivalent to USD244bn, an annualized USD2.9 trillion – 30% of GDP!). On that basis it seems talk of reform to change China’s growth-model is still just talk – the priority is keeping GDP growth at 7.5% YoY through expansion of credit. That’s a near-term positive, of course, but an ever-larger medium- and long-term negative”.

“Tomorrow has Aussie NAB business confidence, the German ZEW survey, the US small business survey, and Indian CPY and industrial production”.

“Wednesday has Japan’s Q2 GDP (seen as weak as Q1 was strong); Aussie consumer confidence; and from Wednesday onwards we will see the release of China’s retail sales and fixed investment data. There’s also UK unemployment and Eurozone industrial production, as well as the BOE’s Inflation Report, ahead of US retail sales and business inventories”.

“Thursday has final Eurozone July CPI and our first look at Q2 GDP – seen up 0.1% QoQ (slower than 0.2% in Q1) and just 0.7% YoY, only slightly higher than headline inflation of 0.4% (i.e., the long-running Japanese form of the economic misery index: low growth and low CPI). Bank Indonesia also has a rate decision”.

“Friday has US PPI and industrial production, final Michigan confidence, Indonesia’s key Q2 current account data, and China’s property prices (unlikely to be happy reading), as