AUD/USD extends recovery above 0.7800, focus on US data, Powell

• AUD/USD sits at daily highs above 0.7800 but bulls lack follow-through.
• Upbeat Australian trade data and vaccine progress outweigh firmer T-yields, DXY.
• The aussie looks to US data, Powell’s critical speech for fresh impetus.

AUD/USD holds the higher ground above 0.7800, extending the recovery gains in early European trading.  

The aussie staged a solid turnaround so far this Thursday, having hit a daily low of 0.7753 in early Asia. The rebound in the spot could be mainly attributed to Australia’s record high trade surplus, as markets shrugged off the downbeat Retail Sales and the risk-off market mood.

The progress in Australia’s covid vaccine rollout also adds to the bullish tone around the aussie dollar. Prime Minister Scott Morrison said early Thursday that the AstraZeneca vaccine rollout will begin from Friday.

Further, a bounce in the commodities complex, especially in gold and oil prices, renders positive for resource-link aussie. The AUD bulls also cheered the comments from the RBA's Head of Financial Stability Kearns, citing that the house price gains are not a concern right now.

Meanwhile, the major stands resilient to the renewed upside in the Treasury yields, which is boding well for the US dollar when compared to its main competitors. Also, the risk-off trading on the global equities failed to deter the bulls. The S&P 500 futures dropped as much as 0.50%, now recovering above 3,800 points.

The main focus for Thursday’s trading remains the Fed Chair Powell’s speech, as markets are expecting him to offer some comments on the recent rise in the yields and implications for the monetary policy.

In the meantime, traders will keep an eye on the risk sentiment and US weekly jobless claims for trading incentives.

AUD/USD: Technical outlook

“… acting as an upside barrier is the weekly top surrounding 0.7840, a break of which will quickly propel the run-up to February’s peak near 0.8010. During the rise, the 0.7900 threshold can offer a breather to the AUD/USD bulls. Meanwhile, a downside break of 200-bar SMA level of 0.7744 needs validation from the one-month-old support line and the previous week’s low, respectively around 0.7727 and 0.7691, to recall the AUD/USD sellers,” FXStreet’s Anil Panchal notes.

AUD/USD: Additional levels