Forex Today: Risk-off returns as coronavirus crisis intensifies; dollar funding stress eases
Broad-based US dollar correction from monthly peaks remained the underlying theme in Asia this Wednesday, as markets turned risk-averse yet again. The number of new coronavirus infections continued to rise internationally and negated the optimism seen due to the global economic relief measures deployed.
The Asian equities shaved off early gains and turned negative, with a sharp reversal seen in the Japanese stocks. The US equity futures lost about 4% and hit the lower circuit while the US Treasury yields fell back in the red zone. Gold prices reversed the overnight bounce and fell back below $1530.
Meanwhile, the US dollar index extended the correction to near 99.20, as the offshore dollar funding pressure appeared to cool off a bit. The EUR/USD 3-month cross-currency basis narrowed to 27 bps, having widened to 110 bps on Tuesday.
USD/JPY was downed to 107.00, as the yen drew the safe-haven bids while the Antipodeans benefited from the USD pullback. The Aussie regained the 0.60 handle and cheered liquidity injection by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The Kiwi also bounced-off a new decade low of 0.5915 to recover the 0.5950 level. USD/CAD dropped back below 1.4200 amid a brief rebound in oil prices from multi-year lows.
Among the European currencies, EUR/USD stalled its relief rally below 1.1050 while the cable held on to the recovery gains above 1.2100.
Main topics in Asia
US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin: Coronavirus outbreak could push unemployment up to 20% without action
RBA adds A$10.7 bln to banking system through repos
Joe Biden Has Won The Florida Democratic Primary - AP
S&P global ratings says Asia-pacific economic growth in 2020 will more than halve to less than 3%.
Japan stocks rallied 2% as Dow rebounds on stimulus hopes
Coronavirus update: S. Korea confirms 93 new cases, US, Canada likely to suspend non-essential travel
Japan’s Aso: Not considering economic step of cash handout like the US for coronavirus response
BOK, S. Korea FinMin loosens FX derivative rules to ease critical dollar shortage
Japan considering economic stimulus handouts of around JPY 12k to households - reports
Goldman Sachs has cut its 2020 global growth forecast
RBNZ’s Orr: Kiwi dollar has been remarkably well behaved
BOJ’s Kuroda: Will ease policy further without hesitation if economy worsens further from coronavirus impact
Key focus ahead
The coronavirus-related developments and incoming global coordinated stimulus measures continue to remain the main market motors so far this Wednesday.
We have light EUR docket ahead, in absence of the first-tier economic releases. Therefore, the German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and Eurozone Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due later today will be watched for some trading incentives.
The NA session, on the other hand, is quite eventful, with the US Housing data and Canadian CPI report, dropping in at 1230 GMT. The focus will also remain on the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Crude Stocks Change data due at 1430 GMT ahead of New Zealand’s Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release at 2145 GMT.
EUR/USD: Bid above 1.10 after biggest single-day decline since June 2018
EUR/USD is on the rise with US stock futures flashing red. Analysts expect the single currency to slide to 1.05 in the coming months. Risk reset looks likely and could weigh over the safe haven EUR.
GBP/USD: Bounces off six-month low to cross 1.2100 amid US dollar pullback
GBP/USD benefits from the US dollar’s broad correction after the heavy run-up. The UK coronavirus cases surge to 71, £330 billion aid considered a large sticking-plaster. EU-UK trade talks canceled, for now.
Is This What Peak Fear Looks Like?
The last few days have been like nothing most of us have ever experienced – or are likely to experience again in our lifetimes. Like other asset classes, the precious metals space is being rocked by rapidly accelerating developments.