US: Rising impeachment concerns – Danske Bank

According to Danske Bank analysts, impeachment concerns have risen in the US as a whistle blower within the intelligence community claims that President Donald Trump repeatedly pressured Ukraine's President to investigate Hunter Biden, former Vice President Joe Biden's son, on a phone call back in July.

Key Quotes

“Under the constitution the President can be impeached for "treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanours ", which is open to interpretation. Overnight, House speaker Nancy Pelosi announced a formal impeachment inquiry into the President presumably enlisting a foreign power to help influence presidential elections. Trump has denied all wrongdoings and stated he will release the phone call transcript later today. Yesterday, US stocks reacted negatively to this new political risk, also reflected in current 'red' Asian indices. This morning, however, US equity futures are roughly flat.”

“Trump is only the fourth President to face impeachment proceedings; the last was Clinton in 1998. So far no President has been directly removed (Nixon  resigned). The impeachment enquiry will start in the House of Representatives where only a simple majority is needed to bring charges forward (Democrats need no Republican votes here). This could lead to a trial in the Senate where the Chief justice of the US Supreme Court presides and where a two-thirds majority is needed to convict the President. Meanwhile a Senate vote would likely require c.20 Republicans to vote against their own party making it less likely unless new information reveals and confirms more severe wrongdoings by the President.”