Turkey: Chaotic economic situation - TDS

Cristian Maggio, head of emerging markets strategy at TD Securities, suggests that the sacking of CBRT Governor Cetinkaya and appointment of Uysal suggest that the CBRT may go heavy on easing at the next MPC meeting on 25 July for the Turkish economy.

Key Quotes

“Numerous risk factors still support our view that TRY may fall under new market pressure in the days or weeks ahead. This situation is likely to be exacerbated by politically-motivated CBRT easing and large scale fiscal expansion.”

“We continue to see weaker TRY as the most likely scenario over the coming months. The main risk for Turkey's monetary policy is a forced reversal in the direction of rates, after one or more attempts to ease policy.”