ECB to stay on hold in 2019-20 – Rabobank

Analysts at Rabobank have changed their ECB view, and now no longer expect the ECB to hike rates in 2019 or 2020.

Key Quotes

“Even though we hold some hopes of a moderate (domestic) growth pickup in the Eurozone from Q2 onwards, we believe the ECB has already missed its ‘window’ to hike rates “through the summer” (even under a flexible interpretation of that guidance).”

“As we believe 2020 will bring new challenges the ECB cannot ignore, it increasingly faces a ‘Japan/BoE’ type of scenario.”

“This below-consensus and below-market view implies that the risks to our view are now to the upside; but this is just hope that we will be proved wrong.”