Canada: Falling short of the neutral rate - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the economic data coming out of Canadian economy has deteriorated at a faster pace than expected over the last month, and they are now tracking growth for 2018Q4 at just 1.0%.

Key Quotes

“With further deceleration expected in 2019Q1, we no longer expect the output gap to close in 2020.”

“The Bank of Canada remains data dependent to their core, and with growth slowing more than expected we no longer expect the overnight rate to return to the "neutral range" this cycle.”

“We now look for just two more BoC hikes, in October 2019 and January 2020.”