Why EM central banks are likely to stay on hold? – UBS

In view of Union Bank of Switzerland CIO, many Emerging Markets central banks will be content to stay on hold, as stronger currencies have reduced FX induced inflationary pressure.

Key Quotes

“Poland: On hold at 1.50%

The current 1.50% policy rate will remain unchanged for quite some time, in our view.”

“Brazil: On hold at 6.50%

With inflationary risks to the upside having receded, we expect the Brazilian central bank to remain on hold this week.”

“Czech Republic: On hold at 1.75%

We expect the Czech National Bank to prolong the pause in its hiking cycle in the upcoming decision.”

“Mexico: On hold at 8.25%

Banxico will remain on hold as well, we think, but will likely keep a hawkish tilt and underline still lingering upside risks to inflation.”

“Russia: On hold at 7.75%

The Russian central bank (CBR) closes the week with its decision. We think it will remain on hold.”