EUR/USD: Is not all about the trade war - ING

Viraj Patel, Foreign Exchange Strategist at ING, points out that the trade war is no longer the sole concern for global investors. He expects EUR/USD to trade next week in the range between 1.2200 and 1.2420.

Key Quotes: 

“The White House remains front-and-centre for global markets - with a trade war no longer the sole concern. Risks of a geopolitical war may continue to trump US trade policy in the near-term, while the upcoming semi-annual US Treasury FX report could see the administration take its trade clampdown into the currency arena.”

“FX investors have broadly adopted a state of passivity- whilst keeping a watchful eye on developments in Washington.”

“The US calendar sees March retail sales (Mon), industrial production (Tue) and the Beige Book (Wed). We also note 10 different FOMC speakers in the week ahead - in particular, we'll be tuning in to see what the more dovish Governor Lael Brainard (Thu) has to say on the latest outlook.”

“The build-up to the 26 April ECB meeting will see the final March Eurozone CPI readings (Wed); our economists are not expecting any changes to the readings (headline: 1.4% YoY; core 1.0% YoY). The softening of leading indicators - partly due to global trade uncertainties - has been of some concern, though a bounce back may be indicative of an initial overreaction. The latest ZEW survey (Tue) is likely to be something that ECB officials will be keeping an eye on.”