UK Q4 GDP to be confirmed at 0.5% q/q - Barclays

The Barclays Research Team offer a sneak peak on what to expect from today’s UK Q4 GDP second estimate due on the cards at 0930GMT.

Key Quotes:

“In line with available output data, we expect GDP to be confirmed at 0.5% q/q assuming IoS remains in line with recent trends (ie, +0.1%m/m).

We forecast the expenditure breakdown to show slower consumption growth (+0.1%q/q).

But a pickup in capex (+0.3%q/q).

Monthly trade data points towards a sizeable negative contribution of net exports (-0.6pp) but this will likely be offset by positive inventories.”