EUR/GBP: cluster of technical support holds, BoE next major risk, but . . .
- EUR/GBP bounces as euro catches a bid on US data misses.
- EUR/GBP set up for a rally on a dovish hike fro the BoE?
EUR/GBP made a fresh low overnight, the lowest since mid-June, before bouncing hard from 0.8738 to 0.8783 the high.
The UK data in the manufacturing PMI beat was the initial driver until cable fell off a cliff from 1.3320 to 1.3250 on the back of positive ADP data. However, the dollar sold off and the euro caught a big bounce on the ISM headliners, despite overall positive in the detail, forcing a strong bid in the cross while cable lagged.
BoE in focus, buy-the fact in EUR/GBP?
The focus now is on the BoE tomorrow where a rate hike is expected. However, if it is a one and done a scenario, the market might want to sell the fact considering how much is already priced into the pound. The OIS market is pricing in a 90.1% chance of a rate hike.
Analysts at TD Securities expect the Bank of England to hike Bank Rate by 25bps tomorrow; noting that this will be the MPC's first rate hike in over 10 years. In the detail, they explained that the vote is likely to be 7-2 in favour of a hike (with Ramsden dissenting, alongside one of Cunliffe or Tenreyro), though we see risks of an 8-1 or 6-3 outcome. "Our base case suggests a "sell-the-fact" reaction is likely for sterling, but a surprisingly hawkish outcome would extend its rally until focus turns to the next round of Brexit negotiations (9 Nov)," the analysts added. Also to look out for is the next round of Brexit negotiations on Nov 9th and 10th.
When is the Fed interest rate decision and how could it affect DXY?
EUR/GBP levels
Analysts at Commerzbank explained that EUR/GBP remains under pressure following its recent failure at its early October high at 0.9034. "The 2015-2017 uptrend at 0.8821 has been eroded and the market has sold off to the 200 day ma at 0.8757, the September low at 0.8746 and the 55 week ma at 0.8722. This is a major band of support and we would allow for it to hold the initial test. Below 0.8722 would target the 0.8530/78.6% retracement of the move seen this year. Intraday rallies are indicated to terminate circa 0.8840," the analysts argued.