US: Key economic events for the next two weeks - Danske Bank

Analysts from Danske Bank take a look into the economic reports for the next two weeks that includes PCE numbers, FOMC minutes and the employment report. 

Key Quotes: 

“In the US next week (19-23 December), we are due to get the preliminary Markit Service PMI for December on Monday. We estimate the index moved slightly higher to 55.0 in December, from 54.7 in November, indicating solid Q4 growth. On Thursday, we are set to get preliminary capital goods (capex) orders for November, where we look forward to seeing whether shipments finally moved significantly higher.”

“Also on Thursday, November PCE figures are due to be released. One key trigger for Fed hikes next year is higher actual core inflation. We estimate the PCE core index increased 0.1% m/m in November, implying an unchanged core inflation rate of 1.7% y/y.”

“The first week in 2017 (2-6 January) brings several important data releases. Most importantly, we get the December jobs report on Friday. We estimate job growth was around 170,000 in line with the recent trend. The unemployment rate fell to 4.6% in November, the lowest level post-crisis.”

“On Wednesday, we are due to get the FOMC minutes from the December meeting. Here it will be interesting to see what discussions the members had about the outlook for 2017, as the Fed was more hawkish than expected”

“The ISM manufacturing index is due Tuesday and we expect the index to show a similar picture as the Markit manufacturing PMI index for December, which printed at 54.2, suggesting solid growth in the manufacturing sector.”

“On Thursday, the ISM non-manufacturing index is set to be released. We expect this to show a continuation of the strong growth signals. However, as the index jumped to 57.2 in November, while the Markit PMI service index stayed more or less unchanged, we see a downside risk to the ISM non-manufacturing index in December due to volatility and estimate the index declined to 55.9, which is still solid.”