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5 Mar 2013

Forex: EUR/USD gets ready for US ISM non-manufacturing

Although not quite the biggest event on the weekly calendar, the US ISM non-manufacturing index is the last significant piece of data today. So, the EUR/USD is acting accordingly, already at 1.3050 and eyeing a possible return to the daily high of 1.3076.

The ISM non-manufacturing is expected to ease its expansionary pace from 55.2 to 55.0 in February. “We see slight downside risks and are looking for 54.2, but markets may focus on the employment sub-index more than the headline itself, with nonfarm payrolls coming up on Friday”, wrote TD Securities analysts.

Just released was US Redbook index, pointing to a slight drop from 1.4% to 1.3% (MoM) and from 2.7% to 2.2% (YoY) in the week ending at February 24.

More important to investors' eyes will be the ECB meeting on Thursday and US nonfarm payrolls on Friday.

UBS analysts are bearish on the EURUSD: “A closing break below 1.2997 would be an important bearish development, exposing 1.2877”, wrote analyst Gareth Berry, pointing to resistance is at 1.3162.
Mar 5, 2013

Forex Flash: BoJ incumbents suggest more JGB investment - Nomura

Nomura Strategist Yujiro Goto notes that BOJ deputy governor candidates, Mr. Iwata and Mr. Nakaso, have given speeches in parliament today.
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Mar 5, 2013

Forex Flash: Gilts buoyed by support – RBS

According to Technical Markets Strategist Dmytro Bondar at RBS, “The price of Gilts has two support pivot points at 116.97 and 116.54, as yesterday’s price action saw Tweezer top, suggesting a pull back for the time being. In the long term, a pennant on a daily chart suggests there would be good chances of extending the rally to 118.37 onto 119.00. There might be a pullback in the near term, but it is likely to be a temporary one. After that more upside to 118.40 onto 119.00 would be likely. These are Fibonacci levels on a weekly continuation chart. A noteworthy stipulation would be a sustained break below 116.54.”
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