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22 Feb 2016
CFTC: commodity currencies rebound on oil - ANZ
Analysts at ANZ offered the CFTC speculative positioning for the week ending 16th Feb.
Key Quotes:
"There was broad-based selling of USD by leveraged funds in the week to 16 February. Total USD net long positions fell by USD5.6bn to USD14.0bn, the third consecutive week of decline. Most of the USD selling was against EUR and JPY.
Leveraged funds continue to pare back their net short EUR positions, reducing it for the seventh consecutive week. Overall, net short position now stands at USD4.6bn, down by USD2.8bn in the week.
Net buying in JPY resumed following two weeks of net selling. Overall, net long JPY positions rose by USD1.3bn to USD1.9bn. Leveraged funds now have the largest net long JPY position since October 2012.
Despite ongoing uncertainty over ‘Brexit’, net short positions in GBP were reduced by USD0.7bn to USD5.1bn. This likely reflected the broad dollar selling during the week rather than any easing-off in concerns over the UK’s membership in the European Union. With British Prime Minister David Cameron announcing over the weekend that the Brexit referendum will be held on 23 June, GBP’s fortunes will be closely tied to the direction of the likely outcome. GBP weakness following the CFTC cut-off date suggests net short positions are being rebuilt.
Commodity currencies have benefited from the rebound in oil prices. Unsurprisingly, CAD benefited the most with net buying of USD0.3bn to reduce its overall net short position to USD3.4bn. Both AUD and NZD saw net buying of USD0.1bn each.
Hogher oil prices did not benefit MXN however, with leveraged funds increasing their net short positions by USD0.8bn to USD1.2bn, pushing USD/MXN above 19.0. Subsequent intervention and a surprise rate hike by Banco de Mexico to stem MXN weakness will likely see some of the short positions unwind."
Key Quotes:
"There was broad-based selling of USD by leveraged funds in the week to 16 February. Total USD net long positions fell by USD5.6bn to USD14.0bn, the third consecutive week of decline. Most of the USD selling was against EUR and JPY.
Leveraged funds continue to pare back their net short EUR positions, reducing it for the seventh consecutive week. Overall, net short position now stands at USD4.6bn, down by USD2.8bn in the week.
Net buying in JPY resumed following two weeks of net selling. Overall, net long JPY positions rose by USD1.3bn to USD1.9bn. Leveraged funds now have the largest net long JPY position since October 2012.
Despite ongoing uncertainty over ‘Brexit’, net short positions in GBP were reduced by USD0.7bn to USD5.1bn. This likely reflected the broad dollar selling during the week rather than any easing-off in concerns over the UK’s membership in the European Union. With British Prime Minister David Cameron announcing over the weekend that the Brexit referendum will be held on 23 June, GBP’s fortunes will be closely tied to the direction of the likely outcome. GBP weakness following the CFTC cut-off date suggests net short positions are being rebuilt.
Commodity currencies have benefited from the rebound in oil prices. Unsurprisingly, CAD benefited the most with net buying of USD0.3bn to reduce its overall net short position to USD3.4bn. Both AUD and NZD saw net buying of USD0.1bn each.
Hogher oil prices did not benefit MXN however, with leveraged funds increasing their net short positions by USD0.8bn to USD1.2bn, pushing USD/MXN above 19.0. Subsequent intervention and a surprise rate hike by Banco de Mexico to stem MXN weakness will likely see some of the short positions unwind."