USD/JPY: a bullish start in Tokyo

USD/JPY is trying to make traction on the downside since the downtrend of the pressures the 200 dma at 121.20 this month. The major lost 10 big figures on risk off sentiment and the glut in oil prices while at the same time, the Fed is adding fuel to that fire as markets start to out price an H1 Fed hike in 2016.

USD/JPY fell off a cliff at the start of this month and has not looked back in a high conviction trade to the downside since breaking below, first, 116, 115.50 and then losing the psychological 115 handle. The low so far has been 110.97. There has been a pull back to 114.86 while Japan looks in need of some serious change of policy at the BoJ who are running out of options fast, and traders remain vigilant on respect of expectation of intervention form the Japanese authorities, leaving a bearish outlook for the Yen.

USD/JPY and the week ahead

For the week ahead, we are relatively quiet in respect of Japan we are light on data apart form the CPI's later on the week. The US on the other hand has a good handful of risk events to contend with along with a large number of Fed speakers schedule to make a show the markets.

Key events ahead in G10 - Nomura

USD/JPY levels

USD/JPY's major levels are 116.00 and 112.00. We are range bound between these levels with the pivot at 112.17, R1 at 113.26, R2 at 113.87 and R3 at 114.34. tot he downside and below the pivot, S1 stands at 112.17, S2 at 111.70 and S3 at 111.09.

"The market is holding just below the 115.07, 38.2% retracement of the move down from the February peak and we favour failure here,"explained Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank.

"However the Elliott wave count on the daily chart is pointing to a deeper recovery into the 115.80/117.30 band and we are unable to rule out a deeper corrective rebound at this juncture. The previous low at 115.97 (20th January) should now act as nearby resistance and the market will stay offered below here."