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22 Feb 2016
AUD/USD tetsing 100 dma, bulish above 0.7065
AUD/USD is resting up on the convergence of the 100 and 50 sma on the hourly sticks within a 25 pip range ahead of a week that could get volatile for the major commodity currency.
Indeed, there are many drivers for the Aussie of late, with commodity prices volatile and oil taking markets attention to the full of which price action is determining risk sentiment and the direction of the Aussie outside of domestic challenges that the Aussie economy is facing this year.
RBA cautiously optimistic
A renewed sense of caution at the RBA is alarming and, thus, data is as ever being scrutinized even more closely by markets. So far, the outlook is pointing towards deflationary pressures and observers are moving towards a more vigilant stance in respect of whether the RBA will actually need to cut interest rates in 2016, while at the same time, upside pressures to the Aussie stem from the possibility that the Fed is on hold for at least H1, which is not a scenario that the RBA might have been banking on and taking the Aussie to uncomfortably lofty heights and further away for the preferred 0.65 handle.
AUD/USD looks to Capex for impetus this week
While the market has been fixated on the headwinds from a slowdown in China and commodity prices, attention will turn to domestic factors with the Capex data out this week. "Continued lacklustre services based investment intentions will be closely eyed by the markets," suggested d analysts at TD Securities.
AUD/USD levels
AUD/USD: bullish above 0.7065 - UOB
While testing the 100 dma at 0.7149, AUD/USD trades at the mid point of the 0.71 handle and above the pivot of 0.7127, while the price is consolidated above the 100 sma on the hourly sticks at 0.7135 currently.
RSI (14) is at 57 and in neutral on the hourly chart while a break to the upside has R1 at 0.7186 and R3 at 0.7281, above recent highs of 0.7243 offered. To the downside, S1 is located at 0.7091 and S3 at 0.6996 on losing the 0.70 handle with 0.6983 as recent lows on 11th Feb guarding 0.7023 Feb low and 0.6834 2016 lows.
Indeed, there are many drivers for the Aussie of late, with commodity prices volatile and oil taking markets attention to the full of which price action is determining risk sentiment and the direction of the Aussie outside of domestic challenges that the Aussie economy is facing this year.
RBA cautiously optimistic
A renewed sense of caution at the RBA is alarming and, thus, data is as ever being scrutinized even more closely by markets. So far, the outlook is pointing towards deflationary pressures and observers are moving towards a more vigilant stance in respect of whether the RBA will actually need to cut interest rates in 2016, while at the same time, upside pressures to the Aussie stem from the possibility that the Fed is on hold for at least H1, which is not a scenario that the RBA might have been banking on and taking the Aussie to uncomfortably lofty heights and further away for the preferred 0.65 handle.
AUD/USD looks to Capex for impetus this week
While the market has been fixated on the headwinds from a slowdown in China and commodity prices, attention will turn to domestic factors with the Capex data out this week. "Continued lacklustre services based investment intentions will be closely eyed by the markets," suggested d analysts at TD Securities.
AUD/USD levels
AUD/USD: bullish above 0.7065 - UOB
While testing the 100 dma at 0.7149, AUD/USD trades at the mid point of the 0.71 handle and above the pivot of 0.7127, while the price is consolidated above the 100 sma on the hourly sticks at 0.7135 currently.
RSI (14) is at 57 and in neutral on the hourly chart while a break to the upside has R1 at 0.7186 and R3 at 0.7281, above recent highs of 0.7243 offered. To the downside, S1 is located at 0.7091 and S3 at 0.6996 on losing the 0.70 handle with 0.6983 as recent lows on 11th Feb guarding 0.7023 Feb low and 0.6834 2016 lows.