EUR/USD: what will it be, a significant break?

EUR/USD, albeit a flat start in illiquid markets, the price was attempting a reversal of the recent recovery from below 1.08 on Friday. The nonfarm payrolls offered the bears an opportunity to test a break below the 1.11 handle, on not so much the headline, but the meat off the bone that came in the unemployment rate and participation rate.

The price dropped from 1.1243 high post the release and on the knee jerk to subsequently post a low of 1.1108 before heading into a phase of consolidation. However, risk sentiment continues to look fragile making for a comfortable environment for bulls of the current account surplus currencies like the euro, especially as markets start to wonder whether the US is as robust as anticipated. For the week ahead, Yellen testifies at Capital Hill, US releases retail sales and the Michigan confidence index while German industrial production is the main domestic event for the single currency.

EUR/USD levels

Technically, the major rose above its average of 1.1000 for over the last year before finally meeting supply at 1.1243, through the 200 dma at 1.1045. a continuation of the uptrend, the 1.1400 handle guards the 20 month sma at 1.1523. To the downside however, the 100 dma is located at 1/0963 and the 20 dma stands at 1.0963. The 55 dma is at 1.0866. 1.0776 is the 11 January lows below here ahead of 1.0560/1.0457, the 30 year channel and recent low, then 1.0000/.9900.