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7 Feb 2016
EM preview for the week ahead - BBH
Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that EM assets for the most part fared well last week, and positive sentiment should carry over into this week.
Key Quotes:
"China reported January foreign reserves over the weekend, and they fell less than expected to $3.231 bln. China markets are closed this week for the New Year holiday.
While there should be little risk of negative headlines from the mainland, markets should watch how CNH trades in the offshore markets that are open.
Oil prices should also be regarded as an important factor behind general market sentiment. Overall, we think the current bounce could be extended, but we still believe the medium-term bear market for EM remains intact.
Divergences within EM should continue to be seen. Brazil is closed for the first half of the week for Carnival. When markets reopen, investors will have to grapple with deteriorating fundamentals and a dysfunctional political backdrop.
Ukraine is facing heightened political risk after the Economy Minister abruptly resigned. On the other hand, Argentina is making progress in dealing quickly with the debt holdouts, reaching agreements with two of the six largest remaining groups."
Key Quotes:
"China reported January foreign reserves over the weekend, and they fell less than expected to $3.231 bln. China markets are closed this week for the New Year holiday.
While there should be little risk of negative headlines from the mainland, markets should watch how CNH trades in the offshore markets that are open.
Oil prices should also be regarded as an important factor behind general market sentiment. Overall, we think the current bounce could be extended, but we still believe the medium-term bear market for EM remains intact.
Divergences within EM should continue to be seen. Brazil is closed for the first half of the week for Carnival. When markets reopen, investors will have to grapple with deteriorating fundamentals and a dysfunctional political backdrop.
Ukraine is facing heightened political risk after the Economy Minister abruptly resigned. On the other hand, Argentina is making progress in dealing quickly with the debt holdouts, reaching agreements with two of the six largest remaining groups."