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5 Feb 2016
US non-farm payrolls preview – RBS
Research Team at RBS, suggests that the three-month moving average of US non-farm payroll growth surged to +284K in December, its highest since January 2015.
Key Quotes
“But while we expect labor market gains to continue at a solid pace, that trend may prove unsustainable into January. Our trading desk economists forecast non-farm payroll growth of 180K in January, slightly below the listed consensus and well below December’s 292K surge.
The bulk of that decline, is centered in just three sectors – transportation and warehousing, professional business services, and government employment. Less supportive base effects in January may mean that the average hourly earnings growth rate in January dips from 2.5% y/y to 2.2% y/y, even though our economists look for a relatively firm +0.3% m/m advance in earnings. The unemployment rate may dip below 5.0% for the first time since 2007 (RBSe 4.9%).”
Key Quotes
“But while we expect labor market gains to continue at a solid pace, that trend may prove unsustainable into January. Our trading desk economists forecast non-farm payroll growth of 180K in January, slightly below the listed consensus and well below December’s 292K surge.
The bulk of that decline, is centered in just three sectors – transportation and warehousing, professional business services, and government employment. Less supportive base effects in January may mean that the average hourly earnings growth rate in January dips from 2.5% y/y to 2.2% y/y, even though our economists look for a relatively firm +0.3% m/m advance in earnings. The unemployment rate may dip below 5.0% for the first time since 2007 (RBSe 4.9%).”