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22 Dec 2015
FOMC ‘dots’ above market pricing – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Danske Bank, notes that Janet Yellen and the rest of the FOMC board delivered the long-awaited 25bp hike and all focus turned to the so-called ‘dots’, which now signal four hikes in both 2016 and 2017, i.e. a total of eight hikes until year-end 2017 (down from nine).
Key Quotes
“The unchanged ‘dot’ for 2016 hides that most individual dots have actually been lowered. We believe the Fed will hike three times in 2016 and four times in 2017 and find the current market pricing too soft, as only two full hikes are priced in for 2016 and an additional two are priced in for 2017. Hence, we should expect US yields to continue trending higher in 2016, most significantly at the shorter end of the curve. Therefore, our forecasts for US rates remain above the forward market and we continue to expect a certain flattening of the curve 2Y10Y and 5Y10Y.”
Key Quotes
“The unchanged ‘dot’ for 2016 hides that most individual dots have actually been lowered. We believe the Fed will hike three times in 2016 and four times in 2017 and find the current market pricing too soft, as only two full hikes are priced in for 2016 and an additional two are priced in for 2017. Hence, we should expect US yields to continue trending higher in 2016, most significantly at the shorter end of the curve. Therefore, our forecasts for US rates remain above the forward market and we continue to expect a certain flattening of the curve 2Y10Y and 5Y10Y.”