Weaker commodity prices and rates differential likely to propel AUD lower – Nomura

FXStreet (Delhi) – Charles St-Arnaud, Research Analyst at Nomura, suggests that the AUD has been supported but weaker commodity prices and rates differential should push it lower.

Key Quotes

“AUD has appreciated in recent weeks and has remained quite resilient despite the continued decline in commodity prices. This divergence is likely the result of stronger data in Australia, some positioning impact reversal and the reduced likelihood of a RBA rate cut in the short term. Nevertheless, these factors are likely to wane in the coming weeks and we would expect AUD to converge to fundamentals and depreciate. As such, we would not be surprised if AUD/USD falls to about 0.66 in the coming weeks.”

“AUD has remained strong despite a decline in commodity prices and has remained well supported. We believe this situation will be temporary and we would expect AUD to depreciate in the coming weeks, as it converges toward fundamentals. In this report, we look at factors that have contributed to this strength and whether they can continue to provide support.”