Flash: Shutdown longest one in five? – JP Morgan

FXstreet.com (London) - Research teams at JP Morgan are concerned that this shutdown could be the riskiest in the pat five.

Key Quotes:

“Judging from the current tenor in Washington, this month’s US government shutdown is on track to become one of longest five in history, and potentially the riskiest given the proximity of the debt ceiling”.

“But markets remain nonplussed, except in a few corners of US fixed income and FX”.

“This complacency is no different than the historical norm given near-universal faith that compromise must emerge because the alternative would be so much worse”.

“We highlight a few facts and some tentative lessons learned around these increasingly frequent and contentious US fiscal debates”.

“None of the conclusions change the baseline view or trades: EUR/USD has been over-shooting; carry should only be earned in only a few corners; USD is worth owning on a few crosses (GBP) on expectation of resolution”.