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2 Sep 2015
USD firm ahead of the ADP employment data - TDS
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Analysts at TDS, note that the USD is firming modestly against most G10 counterparts ahead of the ADP employment data but a lack of major European data releases has kept things on a quiet footing.
Key Quotes
“Looking ahead to today’s session, we think the general tone is likely to remain relatively muted on average. Markets remain largely flow-driven, which leads us to remain cautious and reluctant to chase price action.”
“We are slightly above the consensus estimate for today’s ADP employment change reading (225K vs 200K). The outcome will help animate the risks around Friday’s crucial NFP reading, although we are quick to note that the ADP report has not distinguished itself as a very useful indicator for the official payrolls reading.”
“We note that ADP has undershot payrolls by an average of 25K over the past 6 months, suggesting that even the lower 200K consensus estimate would remain consistent with robust August payroll growth.”
“Separately, July US factory orders are expected to gain a solid 1.2% (market at 0.9%), hinting a strong handoff into Q3. The Fed’s Beige Book is likely to offer further anecdotal evidence of continued economic expansion, but is likely to demonstrate uneven progress across the US.”
Key Quotes
“Looking ahead to today’s session, we think the general tone is likely to remain relatively muted on average. Markets remain largely flow-driven, which leads us to remain cautious and reluctant to chase price action.”
“We are slightly above the consensus estimate for today’s ADP employment change reading (225K vs 200K). The outcome will help animate the risks around Friday’s crucial NFP reading, although we are quick to note that the ADP report has not distinguished itself as a very useful indicator for the official payrolls reading.”
“We note that ADP has undershot payrolls by an average of 25K over the past 6 months, suggesting that even the lower 200K consensus estimate would remain consistent with robust August payroll growth.”
“Separately, July US factory orders are expected to gain a solid 1.2% (market at 0.9%), hinting a strong handoff into Q3. The Fed’s Beige Book is likely to offer further anecdotal evidence of continued economic expansion, but is likely to demonstrate uneven progress across the US.”