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2 Sep 2015
US Fed: September lift-off unlikely - Deutsche Bank
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Analysts at Deutsche Bank, believe that lift-off in September is not on the cards for the US Fed, given recent financial market volatility and it will be even more unlikely if August payrolls turn out to be weak.
Key Quotes
“By contrast, our U.S. rates Strategy team sees a lift-off in September as a clear policy error." Our U.S economist Alan Ruskin notes that the Fed has never tightened with the VIX or the 1m realised CVIX (currency volatility index) at their current levels. Bond volatility (MOVE), however, remains well within the range in which the Fed has previously tightened.”
“Our European FX strategy team note that global tightening is already taking place because FX reserves have now peaked and 2015 may herald the end of the great accumulation. "Beware quantitative tightening."”
“This broadly matches the USD framework in which the era of cheap and plentiful USD (the source of much of that accumulated "wealth") would go into reverse when growth started to lag this leverage.”
“In this framework, the break out in the USD and the break down in commodities last year was the signal that this period of leverage and accumulation was beginning to unwind, leading to a period of EM underperformance and competitive easing in which QE would exacerbate, rather than reverse these disinflationary pressures.”
Key Quotes
“By contrast, our U.S. rates Strategy team sees a lift-off in September as a clear policy error." Our U.S economist Alan Ruskin notes that the Fed has never tightened with the VIX or the 1m realised CVIX (currency volatility index) at their current levels. Bond volatility (MOVE), however, remains well within the range in which the Fed has previously tightened.”
“Our European FX strategy team note that global tightening is already taking place because FX reserves have now peaked and 2015 may herald the end of the great accumulation. "Beware quantitative tightening."”
“This broadly matches the USD framework in which the era of cheap and plentiful USD (the source of much of that accumulated "wealth") would go into reverse when growth started to lag this leverage.”
“In this framework, the break out in the USD and the break down in commodities last year was the signal that this period of leverage and accumulation was beginning to unwind, leading to a period of EM underperformance and competitive easing in which QE would exacerbate, rather than reverse these disinflationary pressures.”