Forex Flash: USD/CAD break above 1.0270 could spur a move toward 1.0450-1.0500 - BBH

With Loonie printing lowest levels against USD since late July last year at 1.0256 USD/CAD this Friday following weaker than expected Canadian data, latest COT figures show positions in CAD have been dropping, with commercials net CAD short positions slashed down in last month to lowest since Aug last year, from 1-year high by mid Sept.

“The key take away from the Canadian dollar is not that  gross longs grew, but rather that the gross long position has been culled by 100k contracts since mid-September and that the gross short position doubled last week,” Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman Marc Chandler says, referring to speculative positions.

Marc notes a “convincing” break above mentioned recent highs could “spur a move toward CAD1.0450-CAD1.0500,” while  “Although nearby support is seen near CAD1.0150, it probably takes a move back below CAD1.01 to call the bullish US dollar outlook into question,” the analyst concludes.