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30 Jun 2015
SNB intervenes as CHF strengthens after Greece risks – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Global FX Strategists at Nomura, see the SNB’s action as a way to suppress CHF strength, with the correlation between the Swiss Franc’s safe-haven status and Greece risk having increased recently.
Key Quotes
“President of the Swiss National Bank, Thomas Jordan, today said the Bank had intervened in the FX market overnight, as there was certain demand for CHF overnight. Since the removal of the EUR/CHF floor, SNB officials have been repeating that the Bank is prepared to be active in the FX market, and reserve data have suggested a possibility of Bank intervention.”
“Correlation between Greek risk and EUR/CHF has risen again recently, and CHF’s safe-haven status remains intact, in our view. Thus, the SNB intervention comes as no surprise, after the surprising development of the Greek situation over the weekend, to avoid further appreciation of CHF against EUR and other currencies.”
“At the same time, President Jordan’s comments were the clearest message since the removal of the floor that the SNB has actually intervened in the market, rather than just suggesting a possibility. Thus, we judge that the SNB’s concerns over CHF appreciation are now greater than over the past few months.”
“While further intervention by the SNB cannot be ruled out, we still judge the SNB will keep its current -0.75% policy rate for now. At the moment, we do not expect tangible action beyond dovish rhetoric from the ECB for now, which would allow the SNB to refrain from taking any further monetary policy decisions, apart from the intervention.”
“The SNB’s preparedness to intervene in the FX market could limit downside risk of EUR/CHF, but we still need catalysts from foreign developments, especially higher yields, for a clear turnaround of the CHF appreciation trend, as the SNB is still unlikely to implement proactive easing.”
“The latest developments in Greece could delay the timing of CHF weakness via lower US and European yields, but we do expect CHF to start to depreciate in the medium term.”
Key Quotes
“President of the Swiss National Bank, Thomas Jordan, today said the Bank had intervened in the FX market overnight, as there was certain demand for CHF overnight. Since the removal of the EUR/CHF floor, SNB officials have been repeating that the Bank is prepared to be active in the FX market, and reserve data have suggested a possibility of Bank intervention.”
“Correlation between Greek risk and EUR/CHF has risen again recently, and CHF’s safe-haven status remains intact, in our view. Thus, the SNB intervention comes as no surprise, after the surprising development of the Greek situation over the weekend, to avoid further appreciation of CHF against EUR and other currencies.”
“At the same time, President Jordan’s comments were the clearest message since the removal of the floor that the SNB has actually intervened in the market, rather than just suggesting a possibility. Thus, we judge that the SNB’s concerns over CHF appreciation are now greater than over the past few months.”
“While further intervention by the SNB cannot be ruled out, we still judge the SNB will keep its current -0.75% policy rate for now. At the moment, we do not expect tangible action beyond dovish rhetoric from the ECB for now, which would allow the SNB to refrain from taking any further monetary policy decisions, apart from the intervention.”
“The SNB’s preparedness to intervene in the FX market could limit downside risk of EUR/CHF, but we still need catalysts from foreign developments, especially higher yields, for a clear turnaround of the CHF appreciation trend, as the SNB is still unlikely to implement proactive easing.”
“The latest developments in Greece could delay the timing of CHF weakness via lower US and European yields, but we do expect CHF to start to depreciate in the medium term.”