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5 May 2015
AUD/USD: Dips on trade balance; Main event is RBA
FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7836 with a high of 0.7848 and a low of 0.7829.
AUD/USD is extending the downside post the trade balance data that came below forecasts in March while markets lack volume with Japan out and most awaiting the results of the RBA decision later. AUD/USD has been in minor recovery mode since failing at the weekly highs and dropping from 0.80 territory.
There has been a lack of impetus from Australian events and it has been much more about the greenback in the past few weeks, despite the last set of Aussie jobs numbers. For that reason, today's RBA will be the highlight for the Aussie and has the potential to be a mover no mater the outcome. Most analysts are factoring in a rate cut, with a fair bit of that already priced in to the unit, although a cut would see the Aussie under pressure and headed for the RBA's preferred level of price in the 0.75's.
However, any positive surprises from the RBA could be an excuse to test the 0.80 handle again but caution and tough resistance at 0.8080 could cap the rallies and upside of such an outcome. There are a number of factors that the RBA needs to take in to consideration, with the housing market a concern (hold rates) and the value of the Aussie (cut rates) in respect to commodity prices and trade while the greenback slows down.
AUD/USD is extending the downside post the trade balance data that came below forecasts in March while markets lack volume with Japan out and most awaiting the results of the RBA decision later. AUD/USD has been in minor recovery mode since failing at the weekly highs and dropping from 0.80 territory.
There has been a lack of impetus from Australian events and it has been much more about the greenback in the past few weeks, despite the last set of Aussie jobs numbers. For that reason, today's RBA will be the highlight for the Aussie and has the potential to be a mover no mater the outcome. Most analysts are factoring in a rate cut, with a fair bit of that already priced in to the unit, although a cut would see the Aussie under pressure and headed for the RBA's preferred level of price in the 0.75's.
However, any positive surprises from the RBA could be an excuse to test the 0.80 handle again but caution and tough resistance at 0.8080 could cap the rallies and upside of such an outcome. There are a number of factors that the RBA needs to take in to consideration, with the housing market a concern (hold rates) and the value of the Aussie (cut rates) in respect to commodity prices and trade while the greenback slows down.