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2 Apr 2015
US ADP, ISM manufacturing miss expectations - Capital Economics
FXStreet (Bali) - Paul Ashworth, Economist at Capital Economics, reviews the latest misses in US data.
Key Quotes
"The ADP survey released on Wednesday suggested that private payroll employment increased by 189,000 in March, down from 214,000 in February. However, the survey proved to be far too pessimistic in February and we wouldn't rule out a repeat of that pattern in March."
"Based on the drop back in initial jobless claims, the strength of job openings and the upbeat employment indices in the various activity surveys, we still estimate that the official figures, due out this Friday, will show that non-farm payrolls increased by 240,000 last month."
"Meanwhile, the decline in the ISM manufacturing index, to a 12-month low of 51.5 in March from 52.9, illustrates that the stronger dollar and soft overseas demand are still an obstacle for export-orientated producers. Other surveys indicate that the non-manufacturing sectors are still doing well, however, so the slowdown in manufacturing specifically is not overly alarming from a macro standpoint."
Key Quotes
"The ADP survey released on Wednesday suggested that private payroll employment increased by 189,000 in March, down from 214,000 in February. However, the survey proved to be far too pessimistic in February and we wouldn't rule out a repeat of that pattern in March."
"Based on the drop back in initial jobless claims, the strength of job openings and the upbeat employment indices in the various activity surveys, we still estimate that the official figures, due out this Friday, will show that non-farm payrolls increased by 240,000 last month."
"Meanwhile, the decline in the ISM manufacturing index, to a 12-month low of 51.5 in March from 52.9, illustrates that the stronger dollar and soft overseas demand are still an obstacle for export-orientated producers. Other surveys indicate that the non-manufacturing sectors are still doing well, however, so the slowdown in manufacturing specifically is not overly alarming from a macro standpoint."