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21 Jun 2013
Flash: AXJ FX trading towards lows - DBS Group
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - DBS Group analysts note that Asia ex Japan (AXJ) currencies have, on average,traded back towards their lows seen at the start of the Eurozone crisis in September 2011.
They feel that this was worse than the sell-off in 1Q13 from a weak Japanese yen. Further, domestic-led Southeast Asian markets were hit harder than their export-led counterparts. They ask, “Why? During the Eurozone crisis, these Southeast Asian economies did not suffer a growth deceleration because they were able to depend on domestic demand to keep up their growth rates.They were the main beneficiaries in the region from the negative real interest rate environment during the Eurozone crisis.” They finish by noting that today, bond yields are higher in the US and globally, and more importantly, above inflation again.
They feel that this was worse than the sell-off in 1Q13 from a weak Japanese yen. Further, domestic-led Southeast Asian markets were hit harder than their export-led counterparts. They ask, “Why? During the Eurozone crisis, these Southeast Asian economies did not suffer a growth deceleration because they were able to depend on domestic demand to keep up their growth rates.They were the main beneficiaries in the region from the negative real interest rate environment during the Eurozone crisis.” They finish by noting that today, bond yields are higher in the US and globally, and more importantly, above inflation again.