Australia's wage growth up next - NAB

FXStreet (Bali) - According to NAB Economists, Wednesday’s Q3 wage data is expected to show a small up-tick in the annual growth rate.

Key Quotes

"After several low quarterly increases, we expect Wednesday’s Q3 wage data to show a small up-tick in the annual growth rate from 2.6% yoy to 2.7% in Q3. We wouldn’t read this as a turn in the trend for wage growth."

"At best we see wage growth in the 2½-3% area over the next year or so, barely above the mid-point of the RBA‘s target inflation band."

"The risk to this forecast remains for even weaker wage outturns and further cuts in real incomes."

"The key point to make about the labour market is that there is plenty of spare capacity and this is putting downward pressure on wage growth."

"In last week’s revised labour force survey, the ABS reckoned the unemployment rate at 6.24% for October. The highest unemployment rate for this cycle, and highest rate since Sep 2002, makes for a weak labour market. But the degree of downward pressure on wage growth is probably even greater than this, at least from a historical perspective.