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31 Mar 2025
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rises to near record high below $3,100 amid global uncertainty
- Gold price climbs to near $3,090 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Escalating global trade tensions and economic uncertainties boost the safe-haven flows, supporting Gold price.
- Traders brace for the US March ISM Manufacturing PMI data, which is due later on Tuesday.
The Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to around $3,090 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal maintains its uptrend near a record high amid fears of a global trade war triggered by US President Donald Trump's latest tariffs.
Trump last week announced a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks set to take effect on April 3. This measure comes on top of a flat 25% tariff on steel and aluminum and Trump's impending reciprocal tariff announcement on Wednesday. The ongoing fears related to trade wars and global economic uncertainty boost the yellow metal, a traditional safe-haven asset.
Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday showed that the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.4% MoM in February, compared to 0.3% in January. This figure came in hotter than the expectation of 0.3%. On an annual basis, the core PCE jumped 2.8% in February versus 2.7% prior (revised from 2.6%).
The report suggested sticky inflation in the US economy. Nonetheless, Trump’s aggressive trade policy raises concerns that the economy may fall into stagflation or even recession. This, in turn, undermines the Greenback and lifts the USD-denominated commodity price.
Traders will keep an eye on the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March, which is due later on Tuesday. If the report shows a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could underpin the US Dollar (USD) and cap the upside for the Gold price.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.