GBP: Tariffs versus BoE – ING

EUR/GBP is offered again this morning as the market is dominated once more by the tariff story, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. 

GBP/USD to go to the lower end of the 1.2250-2500 trading range

"Here, the market expects the EU to have more to lose than the UK on tariffs. We cannot rule out another drop in EUR/GBP to the 0.8250 area should tariffs hit Europe in the early part of this week. However, tomorrow could see the focus flip back to the Bank of England easing cycle." 

"Here, former arch-hawk – potentially now arch-dove – Catherine Mann delivers a speech on the UK outlook. Understanding why she voted for a 50bp rate cut last week could shed light on whether others will want to follow suit. A soft fourth quarter UK GDP figure out on Thursday could also add to a dovish narrative."

"GBP/USD should be the focus for any sterling downside, however. We favour GBP/USD heading down towards the lower end of a 1.2250-2500 trading range."