NFP: Payroll growth to slow to 195K in April – Wells Fargo

Next week it is not only about central banks, the US official employment report is due on Friday. Analysts at Wells Fargo, see payroll rising by 195K, slightly above the consensus of 181K.

Key quotes: 

“Slowly bending, not breaking, has so far been the story of the labor market this year. That is unlikely to change with April's employment report. In March, nonfarm payrolls rose by 236K, the weakest print since December 2020. Signs were more encouraging in the separate household survey, where employment rose by 577K, causing the unemployment rate to tick back down to 3.5%. The labor force participation rate also rose for a fourth straight month.”

“Falling hiring plans and job openings point to demand for workers continuing to trend lower. With some hiring pulled forward by the unusually warm weather to start the year, we look for payroll growth to slow to 195K in April and for the unemployment rate to edge back up to 3.6%. Another 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings would keep the year-over-year rate at 4.2%.”