Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD struggles at the 100-DMA and trips down toward $19.20
- Despite a risk-on impulse, silver price edges lower amidst US Dollar strength.
- US S&P Global PMIs flash contraction as traders eye GDP and PCE figures ahead of the Fed’s next monetary policy meeting.
- Silver Price Forecast (XAG/USD): To extend its losses once it clears $19.20.
Silver price collides with solid resistance at the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $19.64, and retraces below $19.30, as the US Dollar (USD) got boosted by risk-aversion in the FX markets, while US bond yields ease from last week’s highs. Factors like weaker US economic data, alongside US Dollar strength, weighed on the white metal. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading at $19.20 a troy ounce, below its opening price.
Business activity in the US declined, bolstered the greenback
S&P Global reported that United States (US) business activity deteriorated sharply in October. The Manufacturing and Services Indices remained in contractionary territory, each at 49.9 and 46.6, consequently impacting the compound figure. The S&P Composite PMI dropped to 47.3, less than estimates, and trailed September’s 49.5, which at contractionary territory, was contained.
Following the report, the greenback aimed lower, as delineated by the US Dollar Index (DXY). However, the DXY recovered some ground and edged towards 112.022. In the meantime, the US 10-year Treasury bond yield is almost flat at 4.219%, a headwind for the silver price.
The blackout period for Fed officials started last Saturday. Friday’s comments by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and St. Louis James Bullard said that 75 bps for November are “almost” a done deal but acknowledged that the pace might slow down as rates move higher.
Aside from this, the US economic docket during the week will be busy. Tier 1 info includes Tuesday’s Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence. On Thursday, the US Bureau of Economics will release the Advanced GDP reading ahead of Friday’s unveiling of the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation, the PCE.
Silver Price Forecast (XAG/USD): Technical outlook
XAG/USD remains neutral-to-downward biased, further cemented by the failure to crack the 100-day EMA, which was a difficult supply zone to hurdle; hence XAG/USD fell. However, XAG/USD buyers leaned on the 20-day EMA at around $19.30, though the price slipped at the time of typing, so further downward action is expected. Therefore, the XAG/USD first support would be the 50-day EMA at $19.10, followed by the $19.00 figure and the October 20 daily low at $18.23.